Leading cryptocurrency accumulation and value transfer solution by 2030?
Former Goldman Sachs fund manager Raoul Pal has updated a major chart comparing cryptocurrency adoption to that of the Internet. Shared via his Twitter account, the graph attempts to represent the pace at which technologies have reached a certain number of users over the same period.
The chart for the internet begins in 1992, while cryptography begins in 2016 when both Bitcoin and Ethereum were live. Both technologies had 5 million users in those days. As seen below, the graph indicates that it took only 6 years for its adoption levels to increase to attract 295 million attendees. Over the same period, the Internet saw only less than half of the growth that stood at 119 million in 1998.
Pal said cryptocurrencies experienced 137% growth over that period, while the internet saw 76%. 2021 was an important turning point for the adoption of digital assets, probably boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the increased demand for digital payments and unconventional forms of investment. Pal said: “2021 was a year of accelerated growth and the effect of Reed’s law of networks built on networks that create even more exponentiality is clear (…). As I always say, this is the fastest technology adoption the world has ever seen. ”
Additionally, Pal has forecast 1.2 billion digital asset users by December 2025 if the industry follows the slowdown in internet growth. The metric could rise to 2.5 billion users if “we assume the growth rate of the Internet in the first 6 years,” he added. The forecast becomes more optimistic every year. The former Goldman Sachs executive said, “Using the 76% growth rate (suggesting a near-halving of network growth as the network matures), we now have 5 billion users by 2030. dominant source of owning, transferring and registering global contact value and terms ”.
An “explosion” of use cases and better applications are driven by blockchain technology. These are the two main factors that, according to Pal, have contributed to making users jump into this space. The former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of Global Macro Investor (GMI), proposed a formula to predict the impact of increased adoption on the price of digital assets. By multiplying the daily transaction volumes by the number of active users, you can get an estimate of future price performance. Pal used the Bitcoin chart as an example. As seen below, in blue, there is the price of BTC from 2010 until now compared to its potential value by applying this formula.
The charts for Ethereum, Polkadot and XRP seem to fit the proposed model. In the coming years, as the adoption of digital assets expands further, Pal has predicted that those tokens with a burning mechanism (ETH, BNB, LUNA, for example) could outperform the market.
Likewise, ETH could grow more than BTC and become a larger asset in terms of market capitalization. As Pal said, this event may not have any consequences given the different characteristics of both networks. He added: “But if a network continues to create network effects, the log regression channel is still a great way to predict the future… Assuming BTC stays 1 standard deviation below the trend, it provides a price target of $ 600,000 “.
COMMENT. Remember that the block-chain system is a system of false democracy. There are equal conditions between the nodes, but it is like arguing that the Knights Templar were democratic because they shared food and property. Now mining is reserved for a few supercomputer owners. The common citizen who buys cryptocurrencies has infinite possibilities of being scammed, from the Ponzi method to the theft of badly invested money. Combining an anarchist system with a state system is impossible. This is demonstrated by Meta (Facebook) who has given up on launching its cryptocurrency. So we hope that the world will realize the validity of the proposed exhibition of digital currency that respects the canons of the CBDC.